PA Anterless Allocations
05-06-2005, 05:15 AM
#91
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Jim Thorpe, PA
Posts: 536
RE: PA Anterless Allocations
If 1 in 6 tags results in a kill then lets say you have 6000 tags resulting in a kill of 1000. Now you reduce those tags by 17% and you have 6000x.83=4980 tags if the success rate remains the same and one in 6 of those results in a kill you get 4980/6=830 deer killed. 830/100=17%
Now I realize that success rates will vary but if it stayed about the same then the kill reduction of 18% for a tag (or DMP ) reduction of 17% sounds about right to me.
Now I realize that success rates will vary but if it stayed about the same then the kill reduction of 18% for a tag (or DMP ) reduction of 17% sounds about right to me.
05-06-2005, 07:07 AM
#92
Giant Nontypical
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: SW PA USA
Posts: 7,220
RE: PA Anterless Allocations
BT, I think the kill would be lower as 17% less tags could mean a significant reduction in hunter numers in some areas. Less hunters, less pressure, smaller kill. I'm willing to see if the PGC gets it right. The only thing that could screw it up are the DMAP tags.
When I was talking about the 17% thing it was in the context of "if the success rate stays the same"
The lower allocation coupled with the current lower deer densities could well mean that a 44 % reduction in tags and the resulting reduction in hunting pressure would actually reduce the kill even further beyond 44%. On the other hand, maybe less pressure coupled with the long season means better odds in any given day for a hunter to harvest an undisturbed deer and the success rate per tag would go up. I'm not sure we can know just yet. Old formulas may not work as well as they once did.
ddear,
If you want things to go back to 1983 maybe you might be happier watching M*A*S*H reruns instead of tapping away at your calculator and your keyboard.
